TransUnion’s Credit Risk Index (CRI) declined during the first quarter of 2010after five successive quarterly increases, signaling thatconsumer credit risk conditions in the U.S. are beginning to improve. The Credit Risk Index is a statistic developed to measure changes in average consumer credit risk within various geographies across the nation.
TransUnion’s Credit Risk Index decreased nationally 85 basis points to 128.82 from 129.67 during the firstquarter of 2010, the first decline of this measure sincethe third quarter of 2008 — the early stages of the current recession.
“Based upon the Credit Risk Index it appears that weare finally beginning to see improvement within theconsumer credit economy and possibly the beginningof an economic recovery,” said Chet Wiermanski, globalchief scientist at TransUnion.
TransUnion CreditRisk Index- Statistics
After reaching an all-time high at the national level theCredit Risk Index’s percent decrease of 0.65 percent wasrelatively small compared to previous times when thenational index declined. “It is not out of the ordinaryto see the credit risk index decline 1 or 2 percent on aquarterly basis, but the direction of the change is whatmatters at this point in time,” said Wiermanski.
On a year-over-year basis, the Credit Risk Index stood1.23 percent higher than it did at the end of the firstquarter of 2009; however, at the end of the first quarterin 2010, 43 states and the District of Columbia experienced declines in their credit risk indices signaling that a broad improvement in consumer credit conditions is finally taking root. Four NewEngland states (Connecticut, New Hampshire, Rhode Island and Vermont) along with Montana, Utah and Wisconsin experienced slight increases in the credit index.
On a state basis, the order of states with the highestCredit Risk Index did not change with Mississippi having the highest Credit Risk Index at 167.46, fol-lowed closely by Nevada (166.26) and Texas (163.09).Continuing from the previous quarters, the least riskystates are predominately concentrated in New Englandand the Upper Midwest areas of the country, withNorth Dakota coming in at 82.51, Minnesota at 91.14 and Vermont at 93.54. North Dakota, theDistrict of Columbia and South Dakota experiencedCredit Risk Index declines of 2 percent or more.
Analysis
“We are cautiously optimistic that the Credit RiskIndex will continue to experience small declines as consumers keep reducing their debt burden and remaincurrent on their existing credit obligations,” saidWiermanski. “After experiencing one of the mosttumultuous economic periods since the GreatDepression, it is possible that consumers may be reluctant to take on significant debt in the near future,which could possibly temper an economic recovery.”
The Credit Risk Index is defined as the weighted average probability of 90-day delinquency or worseamong consumers in a given region relative to the nation as a whole. The Credit Risk Index uses thefourth quarter of 1998 as a baseline for comparison.Therefore, it measures changes in consumer credit scoredistributions relative to the national distribution anddelinquency rates as a whole at the end of 1998.
TransUnion considered 1998 as a representative year of credit performance within the usual dynamic of the historical credit cycle. A value of more than 100represents a higher level of relative risk. For comparisonpurposes, the Credit Risk Index in recent years has generally ranged between 110 and 120, experiencing a one- or two-point shift between quarters.
TransUnion’sTrend Data DatabaseThe source of the underlying data used for this analysisis TransUnion’s Trend Data, a one-of-a-kind databaseconsisting of 27 million anonymous consumer recordsrandomly sampled every quarter from TransUnion’snational consumer credit database. Each record contains more than 200 credit variables that illustrateconsumer credit usage and performance. Since 1992,TransUnion has been aggregating this information atthe county, Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA), state and national levels.
About TransUnion
As a global leader in credit and information management,TransUnion creates advantages for millions of peoplearound the world by gathering, analyzing and deliveringinformation. For businesses, TransUnion helps improveefficiency, manage risk, reduce costs and increase revenue by delivering comprehensive data andadvanced analytics and decisioning. For consumers,TransUnion provides the tools, resources and educationto help manage their credit health and achieve theirfinancial goals. Through these and other efforts,TransUnion is working to build stronger economiesworldwide. Founded in 1968 and headquartered inChicago, TransUnion employs associates in more than 25 countries on five continents.
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